カテゴリ:国際政治( 204 )

Time for an Israeli Strike? 
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the guy who is lack of international knowledge and common sense . He seems to makes efforts to keep power in his country with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against peoples hope. It is true that he does not evaluate democratic system but not foolish enough to attack Israel directly neglecting assist of US power. Iran is developing nuclear weapons against threat of Israel, Iraq will resist Israel’s threat which is backed by the U.S..Iran opposes. Israel should choose efforts of negotiation besides military attack and declare to abolish own n-weapons .
Hezbollah and Hamas are backed up by Iran which behaves as a leader of the middle East aiming at keeping domestic power. I think Iraian does not want warfare with Israel and the U.S. pretending to deny Israel as propaganda, but we should protect terrorizm using nuclear power. Once Iran develop produce nuclear weapons, the military balance of Israel and Islamic countries would go out of order, but do they attack Israel?
Israel and the U.S. are worried that terrorist groups may use it. It is the big risk, but there are no ways to solve terrorism and to abolish nuclear weapons at once. We should solve the questions in different ways.
Israel had attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria successfully. Can Israel succeed in destroying Iranian facilities as well as past without diplomatic efforts? If Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities using GBU-28 banker buster , they could not destroy all of them which are built defensive against air raid and located decentralized in more than hundred places . Iranian tactics are more complex and ingenious than Arab’s. Iran is assisted by North Korea.
We should seek the political efforts not to surrender.The only way to stop to develop n- weapons is opposition of the world through new international unities besides U.N. The third party is important in this case . They will submit to international call. Japan should be aggressive to establish it.
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Naoshima Masayuki DPJ (chairman of investigation committee for policy making) reported a view to oppose LDP’s policy of the anti-piracy mission. (http://www.dpj.or.jp/news/?num=15455)
1. DPJ said opinion as opposition party
He said it is urgent to guard ships off the coast of Somalia but we cannot violate Japan’s post-WWⅡ pacifist constitution tightly restricts its military. Previously, the Japanese force was only allowed to escort Japanese vessels, or those with Japanese cargoes or crews, and use weapons only for self-defence. Anti Pairacy mission is the role of Japan Coast Guard. DPJ understand the importance and necessity of the escorting ships off the coast of Somalia where Pirates have attacked shipping in what is one of the world's busiest sea lanes, capturing vessels and crews to hold for ransom. It is difficult to find difference pirate's boats and fishing boat. We can find pirates when they attack ships using guns. What is the role of the MSDF with their 2 ships , the Akebono and the Tokiwa in the anti-piracy mission? Can they use cannons, missiles against unknown ships or pirates using machineguns and RPG? Do they have discussed internationally to make co-operation? DPJ decided to send the Self-Defense Forces without answering the question.

2. My opinion
In 2001 Dec.24th Japan coast guard sank North Korean spy ship with 20mm machine-gun, now JCG can use 30mm. I think our equipment is affordable enough to carry out the mission. I think MSDF aim at the training two ships using P3C for the team play with foreign navy. P3C is very useful now. I believe MSDF is doing good jobs there,but there are various plans for corporations. I cannot understand the decision, sending MSDF is the only plan. In my opinion Mr,Aso who has low popularity , poor reliability, sometimes make mistakes ,but has always decided important political matters easily without both discussion and consensus with people in democratic way. He always get his ideas,make plans with his follower ,hangers -on in a hotel bar. This is quite the same way in 1941 when Japan began war.
At that time poor leadership of Tojo ,who respected Hitler,could not prevent it against military fascism group and made mistakes in military strategy.

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鳩山民主党党首は、ニューヨークタイムズに自説を投稿した。イラク戦争は間違、世界の外交は多極化するという内容で、アメリカ人に取っては不快な内容でもある。友愛という抽象的な概念は、一方的でアメリカ人には勝手な日本人の言い分としか受け止められないであろう。彼の狙いは、選挙後の日米関係にあり、ロシアやヨーロッパに対して、アメリカとの関係をこれまでの不即不離の関係から、相対的な関係に移行する事を宣言したようなものだろう。この記事に対するアメリカの冷ややかな反応を期待しているのかもしれない。そこで、かつての祖父の日ソ交渉のように、ロシアの対日政策の変化を期待しているのかもしれない。とすると、これは恐るべき姿勢の変化であり、第二次大戦以降初めての日本の与党の政策変更となる。本当に彼は自覚した上での話なのか。もしそうでなければ、民主党、そして鳩山党首はとんでもない外交音痴だということだ。
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イラン、イラク、アフガニスタン、イスラエル、コーカサスと冷戦構造終焉後、大きな変化を余儀なくされた。アメリカの石油戦略と覇権、ロシアの後退と民族対立と、21世紀の動乱の目玉となる情勢である。昨年末のイスラエルガザ攻撃、グルジアの北オセチア紛争、米軍のイラク撤退からアフガニスタン増派、パキスタンの北部での戦闘など、この地域は不安定度と混乱を増している。6月にはイランの大統領選挙後の混乱とアフガニスタンでのテロ下での選挙等波乱は続いている。このことは日本とどんな関係があるのだろうか。昨年の石油騒動も忘れかけた今日、1974年の第4次中東戦争でのオイルショック混乱から、全てつながっているこれらの地域情勢を学びたい。アメリカのオバマ大統領から遡って、ブッシュ、クリントン、ブッシュ、レーガンと何を残して来たのだろうか。
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